I'm sure someone will do an actual statistical analysis of our chances to make the CCG based on our record, but I have been playing around with the standings generator here: https://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

This is what I've found (all records are in-conference only)

BYU goes 4-0 - BYU is the only undefeated team in the conference, we are guaranteed the top spot if we win out. BYU LOCK

BYU goes 3-1 - BYU would be one of (at most) three one-loss teams (BYU, ISU, CU). We hold the tiebreaker over CU (record vs common conference opponents), no matter of whom we lose to. BYU LOCK

BYU goes 2-2 - BYU needs CU to lose a game and ISU losing again helps to have a chance here. Our tiebreakers are much more favorable vs CU, so we still have a strong shot at the #2 spot if they lose. We also have poor tiebreakers vs KSU, so we want ISU to beat KSU. BYU PROBABLE

BYU goes 1-3 - BYU will likely be on the outside looking in here, there are just so many games that need to go a certain way for BYU to be selected. Perfect chaos would get BYU in, but this is highly, highly unlikely. BYU LIKELY ELIMINATED

BYU goes 0-4 - After a while of trying I managed to find a single solution that has BYU in the CCG at 8-4, but we need absurd levels of chaos, and to win a 7-way tie for 2nd place in the conference. This is beyond unlikely. BYU ELIMINATED

So, there's a path (regardless of how unlikely) to make the CCG no matter how many games we lose, but we are guaranteed a spot if we go 3-1 or better. Then at 11-1 we are 60 minutes from the playoffs, and at 12-0 a likely playoff selection regardless of the results of the CCG.

Exciting times