Here's updated probabilities after results yesterday. Before games last week here is where things stood:
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=34015823

It's a 4 team race. Basically worst case scenario for BYU would be 4th in conference and 90% chance they finish at worst tied for 2nd. Wow!



Here's remaining schedules and probabilities for top 4 teams.



Around 70% of the time BYU is in the championship game without tiebreakers and around 20% they could get in depending on tiebreakers.



Looking like 1st place team will have 0 or 1 loss, and 2nd place team will have 1 or 2 losses.