There have been some debates about whether UCF or OSU is the better team and while I do see a lot of similarities, I wanted to watch some highlights of UCFs last couple games (with their new QB) and look at some stats.

THE STATS:
Oklahoma St

Total Offense (yards): 68th

Scoring Offense: 49th

Rush Yards: 108th

Pass Yards: 27th

Total Defense (yards): 129th

Rushing defense: 129th

Passing Defense: 108th

UCF

Total Offense (yards): 13th

Scoring Offense: 47th

Rushing Offense: 3rd 

Pass Yards: 110th

Total Defense (yards): 71st

Rushing defense: 31st

Passing Defense: 106th

There's a few telling things here, but stats also have limitations. They don't take into account OSU's switch to Rengel as their QB in the first half vs BYU nor do they account for UCF's QB switch to Jacurri Brown 2 games ago.

I think what we saw in the 1st half against OSU with Rengel as the QB is going to be very, very similar to UCF.  A talented running QB with questionable passing abilities, who's alongside one of the best RBs in the conference. Lots of QB option plays...over and over and over.  If our defense plays like they did in that first half, we're going to have a tough game.

The difference becomes notable on defense.  OSU's defense just blows. They can't stop the run or the pass.  And BYU's offense showed that...they could move the ball at will regardless of whether they were passing or throwing.  UCF's run defense has statistically been solid.  That being said, some of that may have to do with not playing against many talented RBs / playing against passing-centric teams.  ISU was successful running against them and ran for 256 yards, but regardless their run defense seems to be MUCH better than OSU's.  Their passing defense on the other hand sucks and has been consistently bad against almost all the teams they've played.

So the game plan here seems glaringly obvious. On offense we need to be a pass-first team and we pass to set up the run. I still believe LJ can be effective against these guys, especially if they can't stack the box due to Retzlaff ripping them through the air.  On defense, I dont even need to say it because everyone already knows...stack the box and force Jacurri Brown to try to win the game with his arm. 

Even if our defense struggles against UCF's potent rushing attack (as every single other team they've faced has), I still think BYU's offense has the horses to win the game for us.

Anything can happen, but I like BYU's chances this game.  I'd give BYU a 70% chance to win.