determine who would make a 12 team playoff in those years. I used the criteria of the 6 best conference champs plus 6 at-large teams. Here are my observations:

Only 1 team would have received an at-large bid with 3 losses, and that was a 10-3 Wisconsin team in 2019 who lost to tOSU in the CCG that year.

The only 3 loss P5 conference champs were 2022 K-State, 2022 Utah, and 2021 Utah.

4-5 teams every year with 2 losses would have made the CFP as an at-large bid during that stretch.

BYU would have been the first team out of the CFP in 2021.

P5 teams with 2 losses who would not have been in the CFP: 2023 Oklahoma, 2022 Washington, 2021 Oklahoma, 2019 Bama, ND, and Minnesota.

All 1-loss P5 teams would be in.

Obviously, everything is different now with conference realignment. I would guess that a 3-loss Big12 team (that doesn't win the CCG) has no shot, a 2-loss Big12 team has less than 50% chance, and a 1-loss team makes it.