There are 100 different sports betting gurus online who publish their recommendations on picks for the week's games. I watch a bunch of them every week even though I've never wagered a dime with a sports book. It gives a quick outsider's perspective on the game, and an idea where the game will be won or lost.

When BYU opened as a 2 point favorite, all of recommendations were to take UCF and the points. Here's a typical response to the opening line at BYU -2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML9i8GtYiEg

It's one guy, but you can find dozens of similar sports betting "experts" putting out similar recommendations on Monday to take UCF. As the week went on and the line moved to UCF, recommendations are still being made to take UCF, even if you have to give a couple of points. For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=shared&v=7pTqEa9QAwI

What everyone on the outside looking in is seeing and saying is:

1. We struggled to stop the run against OSU
2. OSU is a terrible team
3. UCF is very successful at running the football
4. There are other games this year that indicated our run defense is a weakness (K-State)
5. UCF has a veteran and physical O-line
6. BYU is traveling multiple time zones and wont' have the advantage of playing at altitude
7. UCF hammered ISU's defense with the run, and outside observers consider ISU's run defense to be better than BYU's.
8. Everyone mentions the "Bounce House" and how hard it is to play there

If you look at what the "experts" are saying, there are a handful of people saying BYU will win, but that's a small minority. The majority are saying the relative strengths and weaknesses favor UCF. It's much more lop-sided from the expert gambling gurus than any other game we've had so far this year. That's very likely representative of the gambling community as a whole.

Bottom line: all the early money came in on UCF, and even when UCF slid into position as a slight favorite, more money is still coming in on them. It's more likely this is a situation where the sports books misjudged the opening line and had to adjust to bettors heavily betting UCF than some external factor (injury) causing a mystery move.