play each other.  We don't have a game against any of them.  So there are 5 teams we are vying against for the 2 spots.  We are in a pretty good spot if we only lose 1 game.  Obviously, if we don't lose any, we are in regardless.  

Iowa St. needs 2 losses to be "eliminated". 

The other 4 only need 1 loss to be "eliminated." 

So we really only need 6 losses to "eliminate" everybody.  

As it turns out there are 6 games between these teams.  That means there are 6 GUARANTEED losses coming up for this group of teams.  

Here's a grid of who plays who.