A comparison of a few rankings:



Other than FPI, most ranking systems have BYU in the top 10-15. [The Massey composite seems to be the most accurate from my non-stats-background viewpoint.]

Admittedly, there are much better stats to use, but here is a comparison of NCAA team stats I like to do 4-5 games into the season, also indicating BYU to be heavily favored:



However, despite the statistics and rankings, the cold reality of this game looks a little different.

Traveling two time zones east is (at least from my experience) much more difficult than going east to west, and BYU has not had tremendous success traveling to Florida in particular. More importantly, unless the defense figures out how to stifle UCF's rush attack, I don't see BYU prevailing. The fact that UCF had 354 rush yards on 39 carries against what has been a solid Iowa State D is downright horrifying. UCF is ranked #3 in run yards at this point in the season.

Expecting to stop the Knights' run game is unrealistic, but I hope the entire defensive team and staff is focused on how they'll limit UCF on the ground. Let Jacurri Brown try to throw - he was 8-20 for 62 yards against ISU - but contain him on the ground. Stack the box, slow down the QB and RJ Harvey and they'll have a chance.

It feels like the whole season is riding on that.