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Oct 14, 2024
3:47:56pm
Tare Truly Addicted User
Did some quick analysis of the AP poll looking at pts received vs position.

Hypothesis: A poll where all voters are in 100% agreement would generate a "natural poll" outcome where the #1 team would receive 1550 pts (62 voters *25 pts) #2 would receive 1488 pts and so on ((26-ranking)*62). Comparing the natural poll points to the points received in the weekly poll should give some indication as to which teams are over/under ranked relative to their point total.

 

np = expected points in a natural poll scenario where all voters are in agreement


Top 5 OVER RANKED Teams:

8  LSU   122 pts below np

15 Boise St   85 pts below np

9  Iowa St   72 pts below np

7  Alabama 51 pts below np

21 SMU 50 pts below np



Top 5 UNDER RANKED teams:

13 BYU 83 pts above np

12 Notre Dame 46 pts above np

11 Tennessee 29 pts above np

20 Pittsburgh 25 pts above np

25 Navy 22 pts above np


Remember, there are 62 voters so a 62 point variance equates to one poll position.  LSU is ranked almost 2 positions higher than their points would support.

Tare
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Texas Hold'em
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Tare
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Oct 14, 2024
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