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Oct 13, 2024
7:51:02am
WVU_Prof All-American
Exciting Things to Come!
What a blast the first half of this season has been and it's great to be bowl eligible and have the inside lane for the CC game and a berth in the first-ever expanded CFP, particularly in a year where expectations were really low for our team coming in. While no team is ever "safe" in a conference like the B12, we've got a lot to be optimistic about going forward.

We'd all love to go undefeated, but there are some tough games ahead that will be a battle and one of the really fun things about being in a P4 conference is that we would still be in the hunt for a CC game berth with a CFP berth on the line even if we lose a game or two down the stretch. Here are some ways things could play out in the second half of the season depending on how many games BYU wins down the stretch:

6-0: Winning out the regular season guarantees BYU a CC game berth and would make BYU a top candidate for a CFP at-large berth even if we lost in the CC game. Obviously winning the CC game give BYU a bye in the CFP. There are only two other teams that are undefeated in B12 play right now (ISU and TT) and they play each other, so a 12-0 BYU team is guaranteed a spot in the CC game.

5-1: If BYU loses one game during the regular season then it would still be nearly impossible not to be bound for the CC game. For example, last year, both teams in the B12 CC game had 1 conference loss (Texas who lost to Oklahoma and OkState who lost @UCF) and the third place team (Oklahoma) was the only other team with fewer than three conference losses. ASU is the only team on BYU's remaining schedule with fewer than 2 losses and so BYU's schedule is very favorable going forward, at least as far as any B12 schedule can be favorable.

4-2: If BYU loses two more games this regular season then it still has a good shot at getting into the CC game based on last year's results and the fact that most of the top teams will be cannibalizing themselves going forward. An at-large bid would be out at that point, though, as a 3 loss B12 team is not going to get in. Last year, there were only three teams that had fewer than three conference losses in the B12 (TX with 1 loss, OSU with 1 loss, and Oklahoma with 2 losses). I believe if Oklahoma State hadn't beaten us in double overtime last year, Oklahoma would have gone to the CC with 2 losses because they beat Oklahoma State (not 100% sure there).

BYU has only 1 game remaining against a team in the T8 of the B12 standings right now (the T8 teams are all either undefeated or have only 1 conference loss so far). All the other teams in the top 8 of the standings have to play multiple other T8 teams. In fact, everyone besides Colorado has to play 3 more of those games (ISU plays 3 such teams, TT plays 3, K-State plays 4, ASU plays 3, Cincinnati plays 5, and WVU plays 3). Apart from giving BYU a good shot at a favorable record, the win over K-State and the lack of games against other teams BYU is likely to get into a tie-breaker scenario with does put BYU in a very favorable position.

There are no "bad" teams on our remaining schedule, but it's really exciting for BYU to be in control of it's own destiny with a decent margin for error that can include 1 loss and could even include 2 losses. I don't think that's ever been the case for any BYU team in the past.
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