Right now we have a 24% chance of making the playoffs. We have beaten 2 teams with a 10%+ chance of making the playoffs (K-State and SMU).
When I ran through the simulation they are basically saying we can lose 2 games (includes regular season and conf. championship) and we will still most likely make the playoffs. Our chances go way down if we lose three.
(Utah isn't even on the sim!)
Gotta love these chances of making the playoffs

Go Cougs!