I love this topic, cause it’s always interesting looking at the guys who were low level recruits in high school who perform well in college (like Jimmer) versus guys who were super highly rated but didn’t overachieve in college (Kingsley).
Recruiting ratings are roughly meant to rate how likely people think this player is to end up drafted. 5 star recruits (and corresponding ratings) are most likely going to be drafted early, 4 stars drafted late, and 3 stars are unlikely to ever be drafted. In the NFL and NBA, drafting values measureables over achievement. This is just because often at the highest level, you need a certain degree of athleticism or game intelligence to ever cut it, regardless of whether you can play well. Looking at the two examples above, Jimmer certainly overachieved in college, but lacked certain skills to become successful in the NBA (among other things). As a result, his low recruiting rating made sense. Kingsley didn’t achieve an especially high amount at BYU compared to many o-lineman we have had. But his build and strength made him a near certainty to be a future starter in the NFL (with some hiccups). Ratings are important, but they often don’t translate to college the way we would expect.