This topic has come up a lot over the past few weeks (years, really).  Should a rookie sit and learn, or should they play in their first year?

TL;DR - First and second round quarterbacks that start immediately on average have better career outcomes, play more seasons, and play in more games.  Overall, on average, they have more successful careers than QBs that sit and wait for a year or more.

Over the past week or so (during lunch or while watching Lost with my wife), I've looked at every QB drafted in round one or two from 1990-2022 and looked at how their careers turned out.  I looked at how many games they played in, how many games they started, how long their careers were, etc. Based on how their career turned out, I put them in one of 9 categories:

0 - Bust.  They sucked almost immediately and couldn’t stick it as a backup. (See David Klingler or Jimmy Clausen)

1 - Career Backup. They might have started for a season, but they were mostly backups (Drew Stanton)

2 - Spot Starter. Guys who would have been career backups, but the starters got hurt so they started significant time (Tommy Maddox)

3 - Short-Term Starter. They started for three years or less, then became backups (Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller)

4 - Long-Term Starter. They started for four to six years in the league, then became backups (Charlie Batch, Vince Young)

5 - Career Starters - They started their whole career, minus maybe a season or two when they were old (Jeff George, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler)

6 - Legit Starters - These were guys who started their whole career, no matter what. But they also weren’t elite (Daunte Cullpeper, Joe Flacco)

7 - Elite Starters - They had elite seasons, but weren’t quite HoF material (Michael Vick, Josh Allen)

8 - HoF - Hall of Famers (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes)

 

A few notes:

• This obviously isn’t perfect. It doesn’t take into account team situations, injuries, or the QB situation when these guys were drafted (e.g., Aaron Rodgers might have started but for Brett Favre).
• I stopped at 2nd rounders because guys drafted in the third or later aren’t expected to be started.  It can happen, obviously, (See, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, etc.) but late-round QBs aren’t really drafted to be “the guy.” That being said, I separated the numbers further to just first rounders.
• This is pretty basic.  I gave them a grade, I broke them into their groups, I averaged the group grade.
• I put the cut off for “starting as a rookie” vs. “watching and learning” at 6 games and used some discretion.  If someone started more than 6 games, it’s because they were intentionally used as a starter.  If someone started less, they only played at the end of the season when the games didn’t matter or they played when the starter was hurt. If they played exactly 6 games, I looked at why they were playing.  Some were due to injury (Deshaun Watson), while others were intentionally played (Jared Goff).
• The numbers get skewed in favor of resting your QB towards the end because guys like Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, etc. show they have a 7 year career.  It will likely be much longer, but we don't know yet.  On the other hand, guys from the same draft class who are already out of the league (Josh Rosen) have their careers already reflected accurately. 

 

Here’s what I found:

Expected Career Outcome

Learners: Spot Starter (2.34)

First rounder Learners: Short Term Starter (2.63)

 

Starters: Long term starter, eventual backup (3.89)

First rounder Starters: Long term starter, eventual backup (4.05)

 

Average Career Length

Learners: 7.4 years

First Round Learners: 7.6

 

Starters: 8.6

First Round Starters: 8.57

 

Average Number of Games Played (Either as Starter or Backup)

Learners: 66.13

First Round Learners: 73.54

 

Starters: 94.43

First Round Starters: 95.1

 

Total Number

Learners: 51

Starters: 67

 

Number of Hall of Famers

Learners: 4

Starters: 7

 

Number of Elite Starters

Learners: 3

Starters: 3

 

Number of Legit Starters

Learners: 4

Starters: 8

 

Number of Career Starters

Learners: 2

Starters: 9

 

Number of Long-Term Starters

Learners: 7

Starters: 17

 

Number of Short-Term Starters

Learners: 0

Starters: 4

 

Number of Spot Starters

Learners: 1

Starters: 0

 

Number of Career Backups

Learners: 5

Starters: 3

 

Number of Busts

Learners: 25

Starters: 16

 

2008 seems to be the year where teams mostly switched to playing rookies immediately.

 

From 2008 on:

Learners Expected Career: Spot starter (2.31)

Starters Expected Career: Long-term starter (3.79)

 

Learners Career Length: 5.38 years

Starters Career Length: 7.70 years