Score Prediction for BYU Basketball vs Wisconsin in the NCAA Tournament

The BYU basketball team will be back in action on Saturday night against Wisconsin. The Cougars and the Badgers square off for a coveted spot in the Sweet 16. BYU is playing for a spot in the Sweet 16 for just the second time since 1981.

Wisconsin is a well-rounded team. Per KenPom, the Badgers rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. BYU ranks 9th in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency.

By those metrics, the Badgers appear to have the defensive prowess to at least slow down a BYU offense that has been scorching hot over the last month. However, BYU has been putting up big numbers against defenses that are either similar to Wisconsin or better than Wisconsin.

Iowa State ranks 8th in defensive efficiency per KenPom and BYU averaged 92 points per game in those two contests. Kansas ranks 11th in defensive efficiency and BYU scored 91 points in a game that was never close.

On the road against Arizona, a defensive that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, BYU put up 96 points in regulation. That was the most points scored in that arena by an opposing team since Jimmer Fredette torched the Wildcats.

Then there was West Virginia. BYU put up 77 points in that game after scoring only 25 points in the first half. The Mountaineers were one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency.

In the first round against VCU, BYU scored 80 points against a VCU team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.

Needless to say, BYU has proven capable of scoring in bunches even against teams that are similar to Wisconsin's defense. For the Cougars, this game could come down to how consistently they are able to get stops.

Wisconsin played three games in Big Ten play against two defenses that are nearly identical to BYU in terms of defensive efficiency. In those three games, Wisconsin averaged 77 points per game in two games against Minnesota and they scored 75 points against Penn State.

The magic number in this game appears to be the 80-85 range. If BYU can score 80 points or more, they have a good chance to win this game.

There will be a lot of three-point attempts in this game. Wisconsin shoots 47.9% of its shots from three which ranks 19th nationally. BYU shoots 48.3% of its shots from deep as well, good enough for 15th nationally. Both defenses struggle to prevent threes, so the team that makes the most threes will probably win the game.

BYU has been one of the hottest teams in the country. We like their chances to pull off the upset and make it to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 14 years.

BYU 84 | Wisconsin 81