It's Not Too Late for BYU Basketball to Turn Around the Season, But Time is Running Out

BYU guard Egor Demin against TCU
BYU guard Egor Demin against TCU / BYU Phot
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On Saturday, the BYU basketball program suffered its third consecutive loss in conference play. With the loss to TCU, BYU basketball fell to 1-3 in conference play, 10-5 overall, and outside the March Madness picture.

There's still time for BYU basketball to turn this season around and make the NCAA Tournament. However, time is running out. BYU's turnaround needs to start on Tuesday evening against Oklahoma State.

According to KenPom, Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12. BYU has an 86% chance to beat the Pokes on Tuesday night according to KenPom - the best odds of any game on BYU's conference schedule.

A loss to Oklahoma State would likely sink BYU's chances to turn this season around. A win over Oklahoma State would put BYU in position to get back to .500 in conference play on Saturday against Utah.

The next four games, in particular, will determine whether BYU will be within reach of an at-large birth by the end of the month.

BYU has a lighter stretch of games upcoming, at least relative to a typical Big 12 conference schedule.

After hosting Oklahoma State on Tuesday night, BYU will travel to Utah and Colorado for two tossup games. Then the Cougars return home to take on Cincinnati in a game they will be favored to win according to KenPom.

Going 3-1 over the next four games would put BYU back within striking distance of an at-large bid. Using KenProm win probabilities, here are BYU's chances of going 3-1 or 4-0 over the next four games:

  • 4-0: 14%
  • 3-1: 38%
  • 2-2: 35%
  • 1-3: 12%
  • 0-4: 1%

Through eight conference games last season, BYU was 4-4. KenPom gives BYU a 52% chance to be 4-4 or better after eight games this season.

If BYU is going to go on a run over the next few weeks, they need to find a player that can score in game-winning situations. The last two games have come down to the final minutes and BYU came up short in both occasions.


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Casey Lundquist
CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.