If Egor had a crystal ball to assess his placement in this year's draft, his physical development and/or injuries over the next year at either BYU or the NBA, and his quality of life at either place, then his decision would be very easy to make. Given the role of NIL, the calculus of always leaving for the draft if you are a projected first rounder is not necessarily as clear cut as some might purport and a careful assessment of how best to develop into an NBA starter should weigh heavily in that decision.

Egor is clearly first round material right now, but it's not a no-brainer to jump for the first round or even for a possible lottery pick slot. Egor shows up in projections anywhere from an early lottery pick to a late first-rounder, but let's just assume he goes in the #13-15 range and consider what that looks like.

NBA rookie contracts for first round picks only guarantee two years (team options for years 3 and 4). A top 5 pick will draw in the range of $20-30M in guaranteed money over the first two years, but a late lottery pick is looking at more like $8M total over two years (late first rounders are probably closer to $5-6M total over two years).

Suppose Egor can be the #14 pick this year with $8M guaranteed over the next two years (team option for two more years for another $4M per year). If Egor could increase his draft stock to become a T5 pick in the 2026 draft, my best guess is he'd pick up somewhere in the $2-3M range this year at BYU and then $8-10M the following season as a T5 draft pick for a total 2 years earnings of $12M with a third year of $10M guaranteed for 2028-29. That compares favorably to $8M over two years with no guaranteed contract and team option for $4M per year for the next two. BTW, this same logic applies if Egor would be a late first rounder this year versus a low lottery pick next year, but the numbers at that level make the NIL this year comparatively more attractive.

The biggest money in the NBA is earned by players on max contracts and then non-rookie starter contracts, both of which first become available when the rookie contract is up. So staying at BYU pushes the possibility of a significant NBA contract out 5 years from now instead of 4 years, but making more during the rookie contract by moving up in the lottery would offset the loss of an average starter contract over the period of the rookie contract.

My view is that Demin needs to carefully assess whether his game is ready to contribute meaningful minutes to an NBA team that would draft him right now. If he can play significant minutes for an NBA team now then he will be more likely to develop well in the NBA. If not, he would benefit from developing for another year at BYU and making decent NIL in the process so that he will continue to develop when he does make the jump to the NBA. I could see him improving as a starter at BYU for another year under KY in ways he might not improve if he goes to a crappy NBA team that doesn't develop its players very well. If that's accurate, then his draft stock will improve and he will be better off in his NBA career in the long run. On the other hand, if Demin gets injured next year he'd much rather be on a two year guaranteed contact at an NBA team than playing for BYU on a similar amount of NIL with his draft status uncertain, so this is a tough decision for the kid no matter which way you slice it.